Incredible shrunken volatility

My best trade idea was early in the week with the SPY/QQQ pair.  After talking with Mark we think the big end of year tech rebalance is over so that idea could have some legs as that sector recovers.  Congress could still provide some fireworks as Dec 15 looms but nothing is really sinking the market for stocks.  Maybe all the volatility is going to Bitcoin (BTC) so that could be a dampener.  After all BTC is worth more than WMT so we got that going.

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VIX cannot get any lower

I love these VIX Tweets with the big headlines, “Vol can’t get any lower.”  I paraphrase the great Warren Buffett and say “VIX can probably stay lower longer that you call afford to keep buying VIX call spreads.”  Everyone who writes for financial blogs wants to call the bottom in VIX.  I can see it now, “I called the bottom so I know what I am talking about.”  What really matters is what type of position we attach to the market call and what kind of position has “edge”.  To be successful it is a combination of both.  We find ourselves in what I call is a “hanging future”

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QQQ the mess

Every weekend we are treated to a variety of Tweets designed to arouse some and infuriate others. The fearless leader of NK and the NFL came under fire within 24 hours of each other. So from a standard deviation perspective, you can't get much farther apart than those Tweets.  Maybe we call it 3 Sigma Tweeting in that they were so different the NFL issue almost blanked the NK issue over the weekend.  I don't think that is what upset the QQQ today.

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