$UVXY

Mar VIX on top of VIX with SPX on the Top

 

Rumors or facts are circulating outside of DC for once.  It looks like a midsize hedge fund had to close a short contract position and helped the VIX to a nasty settlement on Wednesday by helping up the IV in SPX.  The Total Tuesday Vol Crush gave way to the VIX pop on Wednesday and early Thursday.  What it did set up was a strange dynamic in the VIX futures.

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A Tale of Two Vols

Yet we have another all-time high close for SPX with the outlook for equities very bright indeed.  Not so much on the fixed income side which had a massive correction in the last two weeks.  The story is in the IV and here they tell two different things.  The volatility for volatility as measured by the UVXY is near 1 year lows.  That is right with equities clocking in highs vol of vol is in the basement.  This is how it should be.

 

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Massive Contango Looms in VIX

It sounds scary but it is not.

The Santa Rally is in effect for now.  SPY managed to eke out gains for the year helped not one wit by AAPL.  The late in the year commodity rally is not hurting either.  OPEC says oil will be back to $75 in 2019 or whatever and that was enough to lift crude a buck or two.  The story is still volatility as most of the headline volatility products are still showing signs of life.  That means the VIX futures have yet to collapse.

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