Tomorrow morning Alibaba reports earnings. The market is expecting big things because the IV is exploding. What is interesting is that the IV in Yahoo options is not. Currently BABA accounts for about 85% of YHOO's market value. Thus a pop in BABA options should produce a pop in YHOO options. But take a look at the two IV charts compared:
After the record run to all-time highs stocks are stuck today while the violence in the Ukraine continues. We have highlighted the 5% realized vol in the SPX and will not rehash that but stocks are setting up to go somewhere. A name that has been setting up to go somewhere is YHOO.
The stake in BABA has really driven the value in YHOO’s shares recently and the name has been in a range from $33 to $38. It is now at a 3 month high as BABA just released a decent earnings report as it sets to IPO.
I am going to skip the double whammy of the VIX up, SPX up today. Chalk that up to airplanes falling out of the sky and freaking folks out, which it should. All those overseas tragedies add up when it comes to volatility. I for one would like to see them end soon.
Don’t forget equity option exchanges close at 1 pm et tomorrow.
At this stage of the game the NFP trade seems over. VIX is closing sub-11 and the SPY managed to eke out another closing high on the solid ADP jobs numbers. The moves we usually get in stocks and volatility after the NFP already happened. Sure there might be a nasty surprise but VIX looks poised to print sub-10 for the first time in a long time.
We had a pretty listless day today. VIX down with the SPX down is usually a snoozer, as the market takes a break and evaluates what volatility is really worth now that the printing presses are going full steam. That moisture you feel in air is the strain of the dollar machine blowing steamy exhaust out of the building. I guess the Euro theater is now just a spectator sport as the two sides decide what to give and how much to want. Either way the central banks have committed to throw money at it so the VIX is looking iffy at a 14.18 close.