VIX

Our Founder Discusses a USG Option Strategy

Our Founder was on Bloomberg TV discussing the markets, interest rates, and USG Corp

 

Blog Image: 

Oil SPX Coorelation Breaks... The Wrong Way

I have been saying for a few days that the coorelation between Oil and SPX is kind of dumb and non sensical.  Close observation of the coorelation shows that often SPX sells off with Oil, but once Oil stops selling off SPX would rally.

Now take a look at what happened today.  The SPX rallied with Oil mid-morning with a high in the SPX over 18 handles.  Then, as WTI and USO sat,  the SPX dove on Russia fears and maybe the Fed.

usospy.PNG

www.livevol.com

Blog Image: 

VVIX down but VIX has it hair on fire

The current confluence of issues is the Ruble (Poor Vlad!), emerging markets and oil.  News in the USA after the Senate passed the spending bill is actually quite good.  Good numbers and low oil prices should set a nice stage for 2015 except you would not know it from the drop today.

Stocks dropped, VIX dropped and the vol. of VIX dropped.  The biggest reason for a drop in VIX vol. was the non-event over the spending bill but we still have a VIX over 20%.  SPX had a 38 point range or just about 2%.  The underlying flow of lower oil, unstable high yield emerging market bonds and tumbling currencies is enough to give traders worry.

Blog Image: 

Stocks drop on good news so beware the realized vol

Stock got pasted again today despite the good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales.  Oil prices are going even lower and that should be good for the consumer too.  The retail index is holding up pretty well despite the 1.5% selloff into the close.  What has gotten the VIX futures in such a funk?

By the end of the day VIX cash has shot way up as players are avoiding the risk on the weekend.  Maybe there is not a budget bill and folks are nervous.  Something is definitely afoot.  Maybe the oil drop is too much of a good thing?

Blog Image: 

What a Difference a Week Makes in VIX

Henry Schwartz of Trade-Alert passed along a pretty nifty chart that shows the type of move the market has had in the last 3 days.  It is a chart of term strucutre in VIX and implied volatility of VIX options.

 VIX_37.PNG

www.trade-alert.com

The move that the VIX has made on what really amounts to little market movement is astounding. I think it is reflective that despite the VIX being in the 11st last week,  the market is skiddish.

The Trade:

Blog Image: 

When Volatility Does Not Tell The Story

Today, the SPX settled down .49 points. This will show up as essentially as a 0 in realized volatility terms as measured by GARCH which is what most brokerage firms use to measure HV.  But does that tell the whole story?

SPX_15.png

LivevolX (r) www.livevol.com

Blog Image: 

Mario plays Three Card Monti and wins

OPTION PIT 4-Day Boot Camp

8 Hour LIVE online Boot Camp starts December 9th, 2014

The ECB had their big announcement today and, drumroll, they are going to do nothing else.  I think after watching QE in the USA and the never ending printing press in Japan, Mario Draghi is content to let Europe limp along and figure out a way to pay off its bills.  He will keep hinting at stimulus and  support but will not do anything.  He does not have to since the promise of liquidity is enough to keep the credit wolves at bay.

Blog Image: 

The walk of living dead stocks

OPTION PIT 4-Day Boot Camp

8 Hour LIVE online Boot Camp starts December 9th, 2014

     

 

Ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and the NFP numbers, stocks have taken a quiet turn to the upside.  VIX is back in the 12 handle which is surprising for the type of announcements coming out and their potential for market moving news like we have seen in the past year.  What has made headline news is the slide in oil prices and the destruction of all the E&P companies as the USA is upsetting the world apple cart for oil.

Blog Image: 

Our Founder on Fox Business talking VIX, XOM, RDS and CVX

Our Founder was on Fox Business talking about Div Yields and a Massive Trade in VIX

 

Blog Image: 
Syndicate content