TLT

Bond Vol is Too Cheap

In the last two days this blog has had two trade ideas:  S&P vol is too cheap (even cheaper now) and Oil vol is too expensive (which it is).  Moving into fixed income,  one can see that the dog wagging the tail of S&P 500 movement is bonds.  Take a look at realized vol in the bonds and how much bond IV has increased (this is TLT).  Bond vol has slowly rallied,  but is still too cheap,  We like buying TLT premium and/or TLT calendar spreads.

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