Kersplat goes the implied volatility in FB now what to do?

We have spent a lot of time in this blog chronicling the movement in Facebook.  I think the stock has been a really good trader except of course for the $38 buyers on the IPO.  It feels like nobody wanted the stock at $19 either because all the initial investors were getting out.  Some did for sure as was reported today but by and large there is a big group of holders not quite ready to hit the bricks yet.  The lockup expiration dates have been the great buying opportunities of the year for this name.  I guess the point is that when things are telegraphed t

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AAPL Earnings Straddle is Really Juicy

We all know that AAPL has had a rough couple of months.  The stock has moved up and down 200.00 in the last 6 months.  The company has earnings next week and I wanted to put into perspective how much the fear is priced into options right now.  Take a look at this chart of AAPL stock and IV.


Livevol (r)

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Understand Fiscal Cliff Straddle Risk in SPX

It's been interesting to watch this fiscal cliff debacle develop.  A week ago, I had the market pricing in a 92% chance of a deal getting done.  Yesterday morning, the market was pricing at about an 80% chance of a deal getting done.  Today, that number remains close to 80, although slightly below that now, near 75%.  In fact, we can clearly see in this list of SPX weekly option vols what is driving up the VIX:


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Facebook Volatility is Still Cheap

I had to blink recently, because I thought FB was just a $20 stock.  Nothing makes momentum traders happier than an upgrade of a whole bunch of technology stocks at once.  FB, AAPL and YHOO all got the nod today from influential analysts and banks.  We have had a small short put spread position in YHOO in our Strategy Letter for a while now, so I agree with the bullishness.  One thing about the rally in FB is that it was accompanied by a rise in volatility.  That I think is interesting.

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Sometimes the holiday period brings a surprise of action.  Last year with iteration 5 or 6 of the Euro Crisis ending we caught a huge rally and volatility compression right through Thanksgiving.  It feels like we got that early, on Monday really, this year.  That leaves us with the gap between the holidays and the news about Congress and the White House hunkering down to earn their pay checks and perks.  I am hopeful but students at Option Pit know that hope for a trader is a 4 letter word.  It goes on the list with need, wish and want.  If you find yourself in a trade and the only thing go

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The banks are toast for now

There is a pattern beginning to shape since the election and for the most part it is not good for equities.  The day before the election was a near time high for stocks and the market has not sniffed that again.

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Fixing the funky Euro

By tomorrow night I am not going to miss all the election ads and political screeds brought forth from the Super PACs and the not so Super PACs.  This time 30 hours or so from now some decisions will get made on who rules for the next 4 years.  I am guessing the Fiscal Cliff solution will happen by Jan 1st since we cannot keep the $ 1 Trillion of spending going forever unless this country wants to emulate the cradle of democracy, Greece.  This brings me to trading the FXE.

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Gold moved so now what do we do…

The market finally got the selloff it wanted.  We had steeper put skews and relatively elevated volatility, so the volatility markets were right.  This was one of the first weeks Option Pit did not have a short VIX/VXX play in our Strategy Letter (that might change Monday) over the last 2 months.  But if I asked you right now if the SPX was up on the week, what would you say?  The SPX is up about 5 handles from last Friday, and the VIX is up near a full point.  The market was up and volatility was up for the week, so let’s see how long that will last.  One place the volatility was up was Go

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Was the IBM moved priced in?

One of the frequent questions we take in the daily pit report during earnings season is if premium is a sale into the earnings announcement.  Usually we take these on a case by case basis, but one of the best ways to evaluate this is by taking the front month options and turning them into a pure play on the event.

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