short iron butterfly

GOOG volatility is too cheap into earnings

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GOOG is about to declare earnings and this is the cheapest I have seen the ATM options in as long as I can remember into a cycle.  The key to GOOG is how it trades through the earnings.  Most of the time the move in a direction will keep going allowing the  ATM the day before earnings to go deep in the  money.

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The bond rally no one saw coming


We had a nice selloff today as thoughts of deflation gloom spread over the market.  Just remember that even in a bull market there are going to be down days  and some flat out ugly days as investors and algo guys read the latest headline and hit the exit.  Today was just one of those days.

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