Are We Really That Confident in Russia

I have to admit a was a bit stuned when I looked at the implied volatility of the RSX, the Russian ETF.  Its at just about the lowest level of the year,  This as the president authorized military equipment of 6 countries to stave off Putin and all out war wages in Ukraine.


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S&P downgrades Russian Debt….now?


The weekend provided little real excitement as the Greek elections turned out worse than expected and no one cared.  The leftists are in power but what they are going to realize is they have little choice.  That seems to be the consensus from the reaction in European and US stocks.  VIX managed to turn in a new short term low to close 15.58.

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Beware despots sending in aid

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It is funny I thought the Russians sending in aid a couple of weeks ago was a bit of a smoke screen.  Somehow the Ukrainian rebels got a new leg up.  The situation for them has gotten better since the white “humanitarian aid” trucks went in.  Fast forward to today.

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Stocks are bending but not broken yet

Thankfully you are not a Russian IRA holder right now.  Normally when the USA invades stocks are in a state of suspended animation and then they pop. Historically that is what happens.  If the Russians invade Ukraine I am not so sure the same thing will happen.  The RSX will probably sell off another 2 or 3% easy.  Stocks here will sit in limbo to slightly lower.  We have recent history of the RSX and SPY to confirm that.

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That is not Sputnik, it is the VIX

The VIX kept winding its way higher and skew keeps winding its way higher.  Stocks in general today were a mixed bag, with the SPX down .3% or so.  The darlings got hit (FB, PCLN), but a good chunk of stocks were up on the day.  It is tough to justify today’s VIX on today’s equity movement.

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