Since today is another day stocks are making a little run on the shortened session prior to Christmas. I think the move to 2100 on the SPX is pre-ordained by the law of even numbers. Stocks love going to a number. Test a new high, break some support, it is all just round number.
The most curious product for 2014 is the TLT. Realized volatility is stuck at year highs as there is some serious doubt in the recent movement. 5% economic growth and near term lows in interest rates and I guess this can go on for as long as the Fed wants it too. Why TLT 123 and not 118 or lower? There is still serious worry out there.
Normally I would not do this. At Option Pit we pride ourselves on coming up with our own trading ideas so this is a bit of an aberration. Sure we use client ideas, but heck, they are our clients. This is one that came up in our Pro Chat and it led to a decent trade idea so I am going to share.
I like working at Option Pit with Mark Sebastian and I like our clients. Well one it is fun, most of time, and we have great clients. From time to time we get some solid observations from them. That is another thing I like. Having a different perspective from traders you have helped educate usually means some interesting stuff know the foundation is solid. So I am giving one of our clients some props here for this one. He knows who he is.
Note that when realized volatility dips below 5% on a short term basis it usually does not stay there for too long. I have 10 day RV down around 5.41%. Right now the first 3 Weekly terms in the SPX are all below 9%.
Thankfully you are not a Russian IRA holder right now. Normally when the USA invades stocks are in a state of suspended animation and then they pop. Historically that is what happens. If the Russians invade Ukraine I am not so sure the same thing will happen. The RSX will probably sell off another 2 or 3% easy. Stocks here will sit in limbo to slightly lower. We have recent history of the RSX and SPY to confirm that.
A dead day is a dead day. And today the market is living up to its low volatility number by putting in a .14% drop today. That is hardly enough to register on the VIX-o-meter. Any little blip in activity stands out more on a day like today.
Note the activity in the AVP Aug 13 puts. Paper bought a big block of puts and most likely this was tied to stock. As we move forward earnings are usually on the 1 day of August in AVP. This is pretty early in the earnings cycle to buy a big chunk of juice.
With Syrian warplanes getting into the mix stocks took a slight pause today. Between Syria and Iran the ISIS militants have found a more able adversary. Early in the session the NDX was moving into some lofty ground but by the end of the day started to head into negative territory. The only names still up were Treasuries and the volatility products.
The Fed is staying the course and winding down their bond buying program. We have some higher short term rates but lower long term rates on the horizon as growth is better but still slow. That is exactly what the Fed wants. Slow and steady wins the race and for now stock like the news. Maybe we can catch a bit more rally if we can put the Middle East genie back in the bottle. For now VIX is taking a thumping as the good economic