The entire Consumer Cyclical sector is killing right now. PG, CL, CLX and KMB are all at or near all-time high stock prices. The industry is doing great as a whole; KMB in particular has had a great run higher. Yet, something a little screwy is happening with Option IV in KMB. Take a look at the 30 day IV from LiveVolPro of CL, CLX, KMB, and PG. KMB is the green line:
1. The Market is about to tank and smart money is covering their butt
2. The large stock funds are scared, and hedging their portfolio's
Lets pull up a 1 year chart of VIX. On the top are the levels of VIX and on the bottom is call and put volume. I thought it would be interesting to look at past volume spikes to see if they are a potential leading indicator.
I love the low volume rallies. One thing about market players is that they start to know the game. Good employment news is out, and the market took off this morning. At this point, traders who need to sell stock just wait as the news driven algo guys bid up the market in an attempt to chase the news. One thing we have been watching is the slow decline of volatility this last couple of days. The market has been almost all news driven out of Europe since mid – July (and most of the 2nd quarter). We first started observing it in Opti
From the open until about 2:10 ET, the market players spent a lot of time contemplating their navels while waiting for the notes to come out of the June Fed meeting. As reported, the key changes from April to June were that several members dropped to a few members who believed stimulus might be necessary. That sent the market into a mini tailspin for about 30 min. Then the amazing happened. Not needed monetary stimulus might be a good thing. Who knew? The SPX changed course and quickly rallied to close near unchanged on the day. Is that good for the bulls or the bears?
Not exactly the best day for Groupon. On Friday, they announced that they were going to have to restate revenues, again. Needless to say, the stock got crushed, and with the added uncertainty, option implied volatilities went up. But does that mean it is too late to take action on this name? Is it too late to buy premium in hopes the stock drops? My initial thoughts are no. Take a look at the speed at which Groupon's stock can take a dive: