No, not yet. Here is my main reason why: I want you to take a look at this intraday chart of the S&P 500 Future (/es) vs an intraday chart of the VIX futures (VX).
Chart from TD Ameritrade
Futures in VIX are still backward so the answer is a resounding:
I still might buy VXX calls here, cause this thing could turn
Yesterday I discussed a few indicators that I look at that express market panic. They were also featured on CNBC's Mad Money. Today I want to explain another indcator to look at: VIX Futures. As many of you know when the VIX futures are backward, the market has a negative expectancy (its going to go down). Just how much of a difference does it make? Take a look at this chart. One is the SPX, the other is the SPX if one goes to cash the day after Futures go backward between m1 and m2.
The answer is no. The table below shows 6 things:
1. Points gains in the SPX has done since July 2002
2. Points gained in the SPX has done, when in cash when VIX is 5 points over VXV
3. Points gained in the SPX has done when in cash when VIX is 5 points over VXV OR VIX is over 40 points.
The second set shows the above, only stopping at the end of 2012. I did this to take the latest bull market out of the equation (notably 2013) as we have gone through one of the longest straight up markets in history.