options trading

RVX Pointing to More VIX Slack

One thing I like to scan for is what stocks and indexes are hitting 52 week IV lows.  Today, I was surprized to see the RUT on that list.  The RVX (the VIX of RUT) touched a 52 week low today.  While that on its own is not that interesting,  the fact that the VIX is over 2 points above its 52 week low is certainly interesting and might be informative.  Take  a look at the returns for the VIX and RVX over the last year:

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Entire VIX Curve is Overpriced...Except Maybe VIX

The VIX settled a touch below 13.70% today.  Its lowest settle since early December.  The VIX futures on the other hand are no where near that level.  Take a look at the curve as its stands now.   Notice the GAPING whole between cash and VXH5



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BABA: Sinking Stock-Sinking Vol

There are all sorts of patterns that are ugly for stock charts, but many do not know that there is bearish stock indicators that are derived from volatility.  One that is particularly bearish is the combination of sinking volatiltiy and a sinking stock at the same time.  This is developing in BABA


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AAPL Options Are Probably Too Cheap

At any given time,  over 50% of all options are overpriced.  This is why most traders like selling premium.  At the same time another 20-30 are typically fairly priced with another 20-30% being underpriced.  This means that while it is likely that an option is overpriced, its not always the case.  Take AAPL for instance.  Take a look at how the underlying has been moving relative to the price of its overall options:

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CBOE-Option Pit White Paper "A Leveraged Approach to The CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index

This is a white paper Authored by Russell Rhoads of the CBOE and Mark Sebastian Founder of Optoin Pit discussing how one can consistently trade the CBOE PutWrite index and outperform the SPX Total Return index.

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SPX IV Still Cycling Higher

While the general media might be excited that the DJIA is now up on the year,  I think the more concerning subject should be that IV is still massively up on the year as well.   In fact, looking at the SPX  one can clearly see that it has essentially done NOTHING,  yet IV30 (Livevol's VIX) has been going up and up and up.

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Oil About to Go Crazy?

The OIV (the WTI VIX) settled at a new recent high at over 64%.  That is a MASSIVE move and points toward something really unsettling going on in the WTI contract.  The last few days the commodity has started to move around again, and I believe there is a chance that the underlying could really move over the next few weeks.  The question is which direction.


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