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No decay today

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AAPL pulled every trick in the book with good earnings, a stock split and a buy back.  Toss in a dividend boost too for the long suffering shareholders who paid $700.  That was enough to send AAPL up $40  today.  With good news from AAPL and FB the SPY was up .40!  Not a rousing vote by the rest of the market and it had nothing to do with AAPL.

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Will the AAPL IV ever stop declining?

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There was another nice little rally today on the back of some decent earnings reports.  The tech end of the market has largely shrugged off the GOOG earnings and is looking forward to FB and MSFT.  Note how I did not mention AAPL.

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The Next Internet Craze

Well, maybe not the next internet craze, and no this is not the title of the next Michael Lewis book.  The craze has already come and gone.  I like looking at new products and this KWEB (KraneShares CSI China Internet Trust) is interesting in that it has flown under the radar for a while.  No options trade on it, (hint: CBOE list them!) but the product moves around pretty good.

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Quien Es Mas Macho? NFLX or EEM

So the Friday rout in volatility did not materialize.  Stocks dutifully opened higher with VIX marking lower, and then everything went the other way.  Today the big premiums we saw in VIX futures got chewed up as VIX Apr closed just about flat with the VIX cash.  The VIX line in the sand at 13% is holding much better than Kaddafi’s Line of Death, and seemingly for months longer.

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I guess that NFP number still matters....sort of

The stock market looks like it has had enough of tepid job reports.  There were big hopes of 275k plus jobs, but all of those hopes were dashed today.  The happy number was private payrolls are back up to the pre 2008 crash highs.  I guess that means government payrolls are not, but somehow we are spending a whole lot more money than we were back then.  Either way stocks were a bit grumpy about it.

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Are the VIX futures signaling a vol smack?

A topic that is consuming the Pro Chat group at Option Pit has been the relative stickiness of the VXX lately.  There was finally a break in the product over the past few days, but for the most part VXX has decayed much less than expected so far this year.  I won't trouble you with the whys, but much has to do with how the VIX futures are acting. They just don't decay like they used to.

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Turnabout in BWP?

The market is deciding what to do today after making the big volatility crushing run to SPX 1885.52 yesterday.  I can give it a day of rest even for a hyper active bull.  The momentum drivers are a little slower today, so that might be part of it.  Lackluster employment data, of which there seems no end, and other mixed data have us pretty flat so far.

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The Vol of Vol is getting smoked

For the first time in a while the VIX is getting smoked with a jump in the market.  I don’t think it was Paul Ryan’s balanced budget proposal, but it probably did not hurt. Stocks did not get the crazy 1.5% move on no news, but a solid .60% move.  That in general proves to be the volatility crusher, as slow but steady gains bring in the put sellers and start the risk train rolling again.

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Old tech is new again

One of the most interesting things as the quarter pulls to a close is to see where the money is going today.  It is not going to NFLX, GOOG and FB.  After taking a good pasting the last couple of weeks, the darling stocks have not been able to get up off the mat.  They are still up a bit since January, but definitely off of the nosebleed levels of a few weeks ago.

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No Weekend decay today

Stocks made a little rally today on the good economic news in the morning.  Much of the early gains went away as the day wore on.  For what seems like the 5th time this week, the VIX cannot hold the lows of the day into the close.  As I write this, with 30 minutes to go today, the sub-14 VIX came and went with the slow deterioration of sentiment.

Where did it come from?  To keep with the story of the last couple weeks, the OTM puts continue to attract the attention of premium buyers.  Maybe the Russian’s massing on the boarder has something to do with it but there is still a bid for OTM IV going into the weekend.

 

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