Besides the airlines this cycle (AAL down $13 since earnings) AAPL has taken it on the chin with shrinking iPhone and iPad sales. The big one is the iPhone which generates most of AAPL’s dollars. Newsy rumors today that AAPL vendors are expecting much smaller orders cratered AAPL stock. This is after a rough ride from $100 after earnings. For a company that has mostly done everything right since 2000 it is a tough road.
Stocks got a little lift today on what I do not know. Draghi made some veiled references but for the most part the Euro kept up it's inexorable climb along with the JPN YEN holding up at year highs. Who would have thought the dollar would be in the tank and the two most troubled trading blocks enjoy bouncy currencies. Dollar weakness should equal gold strength and we did not see that today. The 1 day hold in GLD killed the momentum and the IV.
Stocks continue to rally with the earnings surprising just about everyone. Day to day the SPX finds a way higher and higher for no apparent reason. The squeeze in commodity names has the whole sector trading again. Witness the dead turnaround in the miners today. If all that excitement is too much for you, boring old INTC might work.
Somewhere along the line stocks stopped worrying about China, oil prices and mass currency devaluations. My sense is that stocks like certainty and for now neg interest rates, while crazy, are at least certain in several G7 countries. Let put that aside as stock rocked to the sandbagging JPM as the financials showed up today. The big daddy lately has been oil and with the Doha OPEC talks this weekend my thoughts turn to gamma.
Stocks got a nasty jolt this morning when the ECB took a step into the unknown with a continued push for negative interest rates in the EU. 6 years ago when things needed a jolt I can see the Monetary Priming have a material affect that was so lacking in the 1930’s. Now that we are in round 6 or 7 the diminishing returns are in. Volatility got a massive bid up.
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TSLA has showed a backward term structure for a few weeks. I think it has to do with pre-orders for the new affordable e-car delivered sometime in the future. All I can see is the TSLA Apr 01 Weekly 227.5 straddle is $11+ bid. Someone wants to pay 90% vol for juice in TSLA outside the earnings cycle.
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We have one uneventful day and SPX tumbles 13 points causing the VIX futures to get heart palpitations. 3 weeks ago this move would have been a morning romp but the 8% SPX realized vol took all day to squeeze out this dive. As usual look to what the VIX futures were doing to read the tea leaves.