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Rates stay low so why are the Home builders so volatile?

The stock market got a gift from the FOMC minutes release today by leaving the status quo largely unchanged.  I guess there is enough jazz in the mix with oil prices, Russian solvency and high yield debt tfor the Fed to chew on for a while.  There has been plenty of volatility to go around with VIX trading just over 23 today on a  run down to the 19s.

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VVIX down but VIX has it hair on fire

The current confluence of issues is the Ruble (Poor Vlad!), emerging markets and oil.  News in the USA after the Senate passed the spending bill is actually quite good.  Good numbers and low oil prices should set a nice stage for 2015 except you would not know it from the drop today.

Stocks dropped, VIX dropped and the vol. of VIX dropped.  The biggest reason for a drop in VIX vol. was the non-event over the spending bill but we still have a VIX over 20%.  SPX had a 38 point range or just about 2%.  The underlying flow of lower oil, unstable high yield emerging market bonds and tumbling currencies is enough to give traders worry.

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Stocks drop on good news so beware the realized vol

Stock got pasted again today despite the good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales.  Oil prices are going even lower and that should be good for the consumer too.  The retail index is holding up pretty well despite the 1.5% selloff into the close.  What has gotten the VIX futures in such a funk?

By the end of the day VIX cash has shot way up as players are avoiding the risk on the weekend.  Maybe there is not a budget bill and folks are nervous.  Something is definitely afoot.  Maybe the oil drop is too much of a good thing?

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Mario plays Three Card Monti and wins

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8 Hour LIVE online Boot Camp starts December 9th, 2014

The ECB had their big announcement today and, drumroll, they are going to do nothing else.  I think after watching QE in the USA and the never ending printing press in Japan, Mario Draghi is content to let Europe limp along and figure out a way to pay off its bills.  He will keep hinting at stimulus and  support but will not do anything.  He does not have to since the promise of liquidity is enough to keep the credit wolves at bay.

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The walk of living dead stocks

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Ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and the NFP numbers, stocks have taken a quiet turn to the upside.  VIX is back in the 12 handle which is surprising for the type of announcements coming out and their potential for market moving news like we have seen in the past year.  What has made headline news is the slide in oil prices and the destruction of all the E&P companies as the USA is upsetting the world apple cart for oil.

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Target is looking good

 

OPTION PIT 4-Day Boot Camp

8 Hour LIVE online Boot Camp starts December 9th, 2014

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The no Bueno volatility move

 OPTION PIT'S 4 DAY BOOT CAMP

OPTION PIT 4-Day Boot Camp

Stocks had a ho-hum day today unless your name is AAPL.  The late afternoon bid for BHI by HAL might be a sign the oil services business is not dead yet.  The Russians are making lots of noise in the Ukraine again but that did not stop the SPX from making yet another new high.  It was a small high but a new high nonetheless.

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GOOG volatility is cheap

Take a look!

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Buy the rumor and sell the BABA

  Boot Camp is coming in Dec!  Stay tuned.

Stocks are struggling today to make it to another record for the S&P 500.  As of right now a little push at the end of the day should do it.  Without anything news worthy I don’t expect stocks to do a whole lot.  A stock that has been doing a lot is BABA.

Alibaba Group Holdings, BABA has been on a tear since mid-October as it held up better than just about everything else with the stuff hit the fan not too long ago.  Chinese equities have done ok since then but nothing like BABA. Yesterday was the big Singles Day retail extravaganza and BABA pulled in more of their share.

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Yet another upside volatility crush

 Boot Camp is comin in Dec!  Stay tuned.

This is the 3rd or 4th recent record for the S&P 500 as I cannot remember because we have had so many.  Stocks are seeing renewed buying interest after the election and for now the wind is at the markets back.  There is not much wind in option premiums.  All the bears got their time in mid-October and for now that is all they have to hold onto.  The bump from the BOJ and ECB has put the kibosh on the bears hopes for now.

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