Well, like the Greek referendum in 2012, they came, they voted and stocks rallied. I am talking about the Crimean’s who don’t seem to want anything to do with the rest of Ukraine. How it all shakes out is a bit of a mystery, but some very select Ukrainians and Russians will not be able to go to their ATM machines anymore when they fly to London or New York. That message hit loud and clear as both Russian and US stocks rallied back a bit today.
The VIX kept winding its way higher and skew keeps winding its way higher. Stocks in general today were a mixed bag, with the SPX down .3% or so. The darlings got hit (FB, PCLN), but a good chunk of stocks were up on the day. It is tough to justify today’s VIX on today’s equity movement.
I am of the belief that politics will trump economics when it comes to the stock market. What I mean is, one politician can do more to destroy (or help, but rarely) an economy with the stroke of a pen than all the good earnings reports combined. Lately, that politician has been V. Putin since the Russians loss at the Olympics. He has been all sorts of grumpy and decided to take over a small piece of the Ukraine to make himself happy.
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A client of ours sent me a stat that said, “Only 2 down days in last 14 for SPX leading into the official end of q/e........un-freakin -real!” I have to share that sentiment. While I have not been betting the market is going to go down I been thinking it would not go up this fast.
I gave up a long time ago trying to figure out why the market does what it does but at this point my guess is ….relief. The equity market is possibly quite happy that the Fed will start to exit. I guess we will see tomorrow. Either way it is a big rally on lots of unknowns.
Today we have another sleepy day moving into the weekend. As I write this VIX Is up about .18 to 13.15 but probably will not be there for long with the volatility futures hovering just up for the day. As catalysts go, the consumer confidence number hit a 6 year high and that did not do much to push the market into higher territory. My closet theory is the US budget talk is coming again and there has been a solid two year history now of how destabilizing that patter can be. The current back and forth is not what I would call a bullish conversation. The
The earnings season has been a mixed bag so far. Mark commented about it on CNBC yesterday morning and the fact that IV is not really taking off. VXX is making year lows today and the IV in the SVXY (Pro Shares Short VIX futures ETF) is making a 52 week low today. Even with VIX cash up the VIX futures compressed a bit. The only thing cheaper than the IV is the realized volatility clocking in a at 7.27 for the SPX. The low volatilities seem to set a table for something higher down the road but we will need a catalyst. The earnings season has not provid
Big rally so the market defies gravity?
What a difference a day makes. The relatively subdued moves yesterday gave way to an explosion after the close when the market decided Big Ben has some teeth left after all. I will call it his reiteration of a reiteration of Fed policy. The market liked the way he spoke live as opposed to the dour old minutes they released. Either way the market loved it. Did the volatility love it?