Today’s market activity feels a lot like the day before and the day before and so on. Without a resolution it is going to be tough for the market to get a breeze. Besides AAPL moving around intraday things are really stuck in the mud. Whatever I end up doing has to get past the current sideways slosh about that passes for market activity these days. At this point I am interested in adding some longs to my portfolio but what to buy and where?
I won’t go through the VIX play by play today,because it was pretty straight forward. The VIX November (and sometime December) future spent a good part of the day underwater, in doing so, showing that the VIX futures were slightly backward. What does that mean? Move movement in the short term as 200 point moves in the down start to ignite the realized volatility in the market. My closet theory is that implied volatility will not drop until after AAPL announces. I have no real proof for that, but this whole scene feels like last spring when the market was sitting on the big news. It looks like we are waiting for Friday morning for any meaningful drop in volatility (or another pop), but right now, there is enough movement to support what is going on.&nb