IBM

Was the IBM moved priced in?

Submitted by atg on Tue, 10/16/2012 - 5:08pm

One of the frequent questions we take in the daily pit report during earnings season is if premium is a sale into the earnings announcement.  Usually we take these on a case by case basis, but one of the best ways to evaluate this is by taking the front month options and turning them into a pure play on the event.

VIX vs VXGOG forming a Trade?

Submitted by msebastian on Mon, 08/27/2012 - 5:20pm

We are constantly correcting our option mentoring students about the state of the volatility.  The VIX is NOT cheap.  It is expensive, not on a historical level, because from that perspective it’s about normal.  But it is on a relative level.  Check out the continued spread between 10 Day HV and 30 day IV.  

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Livevol (r) www.livevol.com

SPX Heading Higher?

Submitted by msebastian on Thu, 08/16/2012 - 6:09pm

Generally speaking, I think my take on which direction the market has been heading is about as good as anyone else's(and by that, I mean worse than a monkey throwing darts).  However, there are times where I feel certain about my market inclination.  Right now, that inclination is up, and I will tell you why.  

One of the important factors that I follow is the price of the VIX relative to the SPX.  When the VIX is in decline, but not at a low, while at the same time the SPX is right at an all time high, my general belief is that the SPX is going to go higher.  We are in one of those scenarios right now.  Take a look:

spx_0.png

COO Mark Sebastian's on 3/9 Bloomberg Appearance

Submitted by msebastian on Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:17pm

Mark goes long IBM April 200 calls for 5.00.

 

As NDX IV stays elevated Big Tech IV's Getting Crushed

Submitted by msebastian on Wed, 07/20/2011 - 8:47pm

Today, as I was preparing to be on Fast Money's Volatility Playbook (you can catch the replay here), I took notice of how hard implied

VIX Will Hit New 52 W Highs at This Rate, brief AAPL and IBM Preview

Submitted by msebastian on Mon, 07/18/2011 - 1:00pm

I’m writing this mid-day as I am on vacation this week.  However, even at mid-day I am noticing a few trends in volatility that developed last week, persisting.

AAPL, IBM and Others Have Implied Volatility Through the Floor

Submitted by msebastian on Tue, 05/31/2011 - 8:58pm

With the market up big and coming off of a bit of a selloff, it is not much of surprise that the VIX is breaking 16 again.

SPX Straddle Pricing Out a Boring Week despite AAPL, IBM, GOOG, ETC

Submitted by msebastian on Tue, 01/18/2011 - 8:25pm

Across the option blogosphere the hot talk is AAPL and IBM.  My option mentoring students are ask about AAPL more than any other stock, with IBM probably a close second.  However, I think

IBM Paper Flow Predicts Sell Off, Pointing Towards Further Downside

Submitted by msebastian on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 10:42pm

During the PM Pit Report an option mentoring students asked me to look at IBM into earnings.

Morning Pit Report 7-20-2010

We discuss what is moving the market as well as Goldman Earnings and IBM earnings as well. I talk about what trade I don't like right now and what I do.

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