earnings

AAPL Options Implied Volatility in the Toilet

Posted by msebastian on Mon, 01/30/2012 - 4:13pm
It is somewhat common knowledge that I continue to be a seller of option premiums right now.  However, that doesn’t mean that traders should be selling all option premiums.  There are a few tech names where the implied volatilities have been crushed to levels that we have not seen in some time.  Take AAPL for instance:  30 day option implied volatility is at two year lows: LiveVol (R) www.livevol.com

RIMM skew doing some funny things

Posted by atg on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 6:20pm
Today was a day on Wall Street that was well, strange.  There was a nice little rally in the NASDAQ as it teetered near even most of the day and ended with a little move up.  For the most part the other indexes were lower including the VIX, as there was little good news to really lift things.  I think, at this point, the markets are at the end of cheap credit.  Negative interest rates for TIPS anyone?  That is not the kind of thing markets want to see.  There feels like there is some serious confusion as to what money managers will put money into.  Does anyone really want to buy an Italian Bond yielding 3.5 after the bond holders are about to take a haircut for Greece?  Governments need to start feeling the heat of higher interes

Netflix is streaming to a TV near you

Posted by atg on Thu, 01/26/2012 - 7:25pm
The 4th quarter of 2011 is now viewed as the quarter of "the big growth momentum earnings wreck syndrome".   The big names like AAPL, NFLX and GMCR took it on the chin. So did much of the market as I recall, but I digress.   At least for the first two names for this earnings cycle that is not the case in the sunny land of 2012 (no problems fixed and the credit you want).   I am going to focus on NFLX for now, because I think the reason for the move is much different than AAPL’s, and there is a more interesting trade in there.

Option Pit's Research on AAPL as Seen on Mad Money

Posted by msebastian on Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:07am
There has been a bit of confusion as to what exactly what the reserach Jim Cramer quoted Mark Sebastian on last night meant (watch the Video here).  Here is the research that was used along with a slightly more indepth description.  It should clear up any confusion.  As a follow up,  you can catch our live webinar on using options to trade stock earnings on Feb 15th.  Register here.

What Options Are Expecting from GOOG Earnings

Posted by msebastian on Wed, 01/19/2011 - 8:23pm
When I looked at AAPL earnings the other day, based on what I was saw out of the Steve Jobs news, I had a feeling that the stock might have a bit of a dud earnings report.

INTC and an Example of Option Order Flow being Wrong on Direction, but Right on IV

Posted by msebastian on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 6:10pm
For all of you option trader's that followed my suggestion that the INTC straddle was underpriced congratulatio

Breaking Down INTC Options Ahead of Earnings

Posted by msebastian on Tue, 01/11/2011 - 9:26pm
One of the things my options mentoring students often ask me is: 'How should I evaluate earnings?"   My first answer is "I follow the option paper flow."  My second answer is I look at th

What is Up with RIMM Ahead of Earnings?

Posted by msebastian on Mon, 12/13/2010 - 8:40pm
Of all the earnings plays our Options Mentoring Students like to get into, RIMM might be one of the most popular.

IBM Paper Flow Predicts Sell Off, Pointing Towards Further Downside

Posted by msebastian on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 9:42pm
During the PM Pit Report an option mentoring students asked me to look at IBM into earnings.

Smart Paper puts on sweet trade in ADBE...I think

Posted by msebastian on Tue, 09/21/2010 - 8:00pm
At Option Pit Option Mentoring we always get asked about earnings plays.