earnings

AAPL declares earnings and the market adjusts

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As I write this Greece defaults on debt to the IMF and sends its citizens into some uncharted waters.  The SPY is up .25 from the close so it is a safe bet for now that US stocks don’t care anymore.  The game is ending and is about to play out with a referendum this weekend.  It would not surprise me to see stocks start a rally again and end up at new highs after the labor reports this week.  Another surprise was the jump in AAPL IV on a down volatility day in the market.

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GOOG volatility is too cheap into earnings

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GOOG is about to declare earnings and this is the cheapest I have seen the ATM options in as long as I can remember into a cycle.  The key to GOOG is how it trades through the earnings.  Most of the time the move in a direction will keep going allowing the  ATM the day before earnings to go deep in the  money.

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INTC IV Looking Big

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Another toxic brew for stocks today as equates drifted down around 1+% for the day.  None of this was really attributable to the numbers.  ADP was ok but the Ebola, HK, Russia, ISIS concoction of market sadness kept sentiment weak.  Note how all the problems are more political than anything else.  They need the will to solve them.  This did drive IV up to some higher levels so those with some dry powder listen up.

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Candy Crush Saga got well… crushed but is it a sweet trade?

Stocks are shaking off just about everything at this point such as Iraq, Iran, Ukraine, Syria and of course that paradise on the Med, the Gaza Strip.  Slow growth in Europe, who cares.  WMT swamped in health care costs, take it up.  Volatility, well just sell the crap out of it.  VIX is now deep into the 12 handle and we might sniff 11% tomorrow.

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What is up with WAG?

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Step into the Wednesday time machine and not much happened between then and today.  Traders have been so lulled into a stupor with the lack of movement that they bid volatility up to 15% yesterday when it looked like there was another crisis brewing.  As of today no crisis, as holders of GOOG and other earnings reporters rejoice in the upside surprises.

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INTC is partying like it is 1999

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More Yellen testimony hurt the RUT and VIX today as both those indexes made some pretty good size drops.  With a lot of old tech like MSFT and especially INTC, starting to trade at multiples out of the single digits what is volatility to do.  A client wrote me today and asked if  CSCO is next?  All of a sudden establish companies are doing something not many thought possible a year ago and that is deliver some growth.

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Is the FB vega too cheap?

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After a weekend of non-activity stocks got back to their old ways and launched this morning without so much as a how do you do.  This latest Euro issue has been around since December apparently and Euro bank stocks were already trading at lower levels.  Either way VIX and the volatility futures are tanking today and the only thing holding up the IV is the balance of earnings.

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