Generally speaking, I think my take on which direction the market has been heading is about as good as anyone else's(and by that, I mean worse than a monkey throwing darts). However, there are times where I feel certain about my market inclination. Right now, that inclination is up, and I will tell you why.
One of the important factors that I follow is the price of the VIX relative to the SPX. When the VIX is in decline, but not at a low, while at the same time the SPX is right at an all time high, my general belief is that the SPX is going to go higher. We are in one of those scenarios right now. Take a look:
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While the SPX was up big today, traders may have reasons to fear continued turbulence in the markets, at least in the near term. The main reason is the VIX. While the VIX was down today, as many traders might expect, there is a problem with the amount the index was down. It did not keep up with the SPX. On a day the SPX is up 1.5%, the VIX should be down close to 10%. The VIX was down about half that amount.