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Will Greece make it happen?

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 “Greece’s Creditors Set to Throw Down Gauntlet With Proposal for Bailout Deal”  WSJ

 So this is the final hour and Greece is going to get a take it or leave deal to stay in the Euro Zone.  The months of time wasting and theatrics by the left-wing Syriza party is set to end.  If the selloff in bond prices is any indication, the young Greek government will take the deal.

 

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Fed says maybe not, VIX holds the line

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Euro Bust

Stocks made a little run down today on bad UPS earnings and some worries about the weekend vote in Greece.  If folks are paying up for SBUX coffee, things cannot be that bad so we will blame the Greeks. Even after the ECB made their made policy announcement the Euro continued to sell off.  I guess the question is why would you buy European sovereign debt?  Spain yields nothing, you have to pay the Germans and Greece is always on the brink of default.  The 10 year Treasury is still looking pretty good even after the dollar rally.

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The sell off lacks VIX

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2015 is starting off as the year of many swings.  For all the big daily moves in 2015, equities have not really gotten anywhere.  The post-FOMC rallies are fueled by the notion of lower rates and we run.  Then the sad realization of why we need lower rates hits and we sell off.  The only think I can say for this year is that the swings are solid and VIX is off the basement floor.

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VVIX down but VIX has it hair on fire

The current confluence of issues is the Ruble (Poor Vlad!), emerging markets and oil.  News in the USA after the Senate passed the spending bill is actually quite good.  Good numbers and low oil prices should set a nice stage for 2015 except you would not know it from the drop today.

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Buy the rumor and sell the BABA

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Stocks are struggling today to make it to another record for the S&P 500.  As of right now a little push at the end of the day should do it.  Without anything news worthy I don’t expect stocks to do a whole lot.  A stock that has been doing a lot is BABA.

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Did the Fed just do another QE? Or did I miss something?

Maybe it was the Europeans or maybe it was some jitters in China or Africa.  The FOMC suddenly lost it zeal for raising rates.  The economy here has been growing but not enough to satisfy our rate mandarins.  Maybe it is the TWTR/FB world of instant gratification but it takes time to get off the QE band wagon.  The Europeans are  in the tougher boat of restructuring economies since they cannot borrow at the rate they used to so they can pay all the benefits.  It does not look like Super Mario is going to finance that.  Better to have slow or even growth from restructuring than souped up QE.

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