butterflies

The Volatility of Politics

Stocks are stuck to the vicissitudes of Congress until the recess on Dec 15th.  I don’t see how much can propel us higher or to touch the ATH’s we reached earlier on Monday.  The nagging bid for Treasuries is a bit disconcerting as well.  Today we had the ultimate “What the Hell!” signal out of SPX, meaning VIX down, SPX down.

 

LivevolX for Lightspeed

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VIXMO is more VIX

 

Mark made a great observation yesterday on bond IV being relatively low.  Today we had the 2% move and he was right.  VIX is sitting in an interesting place as we are seeing 1% intraday SPX moves right now on the recent volatility in European bonds.  If today was last year, the VIX future would have closed even with the old VIX cash.

 

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What happened to the skew?

Today was just a follow through from yesterday.  Bond markets get riled, equities are sold, mess ensues, repeat. When VIX gets into the 12 handle (as it did for a while yesterday) the gravity in volatility is still pulling the IV down.  Today the selling was more pronounced, like someone needed to sell.  Many of the big cap names were slammed, most likely to pay for bond positions that were blowing up.  The short Euro trade must be hurting a lot of folks.  Those folks should want some juice.

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Is the oil patch finding a bottom?

This was a strange day in the market when stocks really lacked a sense of direction.  For the most part the tone was down and VIX was up slightly but the volatility futures actually finished down on the day into the close.  There was really a lack of interest more than anything else as the race to NASDAQ 5000 left everyone with an empty feeling.

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SPX makes new highs for 2015 and there is still time

 

 The best course for Option Income Trading  Coming Feb 28th 

I don’t know what the rally was from, a pop in oil, AAPL to the moon or a de-escalation in the Ukraine but a rally we had.  Stocks fallen into a pattern of rally and retreat and today was no different.  The last downturn was a mix of Greek elections and 10% of the market cap of the SPX going into the ash can with oil.  Tech is leading now and the market loves tech leadership.  NDX 5000, a sop to swinging 90’s is now a realistic target.

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What a surprise, AAPL earns huge dough!

Look for the Option Pit Store to open soon!

 

The market did not like CAT or MSFT earnings today.  It actually felt good to know stocks could sell off on bad news instead of the heroin induced QE state of suspended animation that has taken over equity prices for the last couple of years.  I don’t think the MSFT earnings were 10% bad but the market did not agree with me.  We are not talking MSFT, we will talk AAPL.

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Draghi killed the VIX

The ECB finally announces a bond buying program of their own.  We will call it Euro QE.  At the rate the Euro is crumbling there won’t be much left of the bond buying program in dollar terms as the Euro rushes pack to parity with the US dollar.  Stocks love the QE since they takeoff after a whiff of it is announced.

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Stocks drop on good news so beware the realized vol

Stock got pasted again today despite the good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales.  Oil prices are going even lower and that should be good for the consumer too.  The retail index is holding up pretty well despite the 1.5% selloff into the close.  What has gotten the VIX futures in such a funk?

By the end of the day VIX cash has shot way up as players are avoiding the risk on the weekend.  Maybe there is not a budget bill and folks are nervous.  Something is definitely afoot.  Maybe the oil drop is too much of a good thing?

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