Andrew Giovinazzi's blog

More Dirty Bird

 

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My general rule trading TWTR is don’t get long without puts.  After learning the hard way on the 2015 trip from mid 30 to the low 14s in 2016 the only thing that kept it from being a disaster was rolling my put protection down.  The near takeout in Oct/Nov gave me an exit which I took.  Now here we sit around 17.09 with Jan IV in the 30 handle.  Noone cares for the Dirty Bird anymore.

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Buy the Vol but don't buy the Vol

So as 2017 gets off to a raucous start let us compare and contrast with the start of 2017.   VIX was around 19.50 at the beginning of 2016 and quickly moved to the 30s as traders let the potential calamity of rising interest rates and possible Chinese meltdown rule the day.  We got the rate rise but China is still chugging albeit at exactly the same spot it was last year.  The only thing really different is that there is a new man in the White House come Jan 20th.  VIX is 11.85 going into the transition.

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