Options Trading and Education Blog

Our Founder On BNN discussing A Bad Bulls Trade and the $RUT - $RLG rebalance

Posted By Mark Sebastian Fri, 06/23/2017 - 10:00am

AM Vol Report : RUT/RLG

Posted By Mark Sebastian Fri, 06/23/2017 - 9:15am

2017-06-23 09.04 OP Live Friday from Mark Sebastian on Vimeo.

Am Vol Report 6-22-2017 USO and M&A

Posted By Mark Sebastian Thu, 06/22/2017 - 9:08am

Vol Report: Oil Floor or Floored?

Posted By Mark Sebastian Wed, 06/21/2017 - 9:20am

Replay of Trading VIX and VIX ETP's with VIX at 10

Posted By Mark Sebastian Tue, 06/20/2017 - 9:58pm

You can register for Saturday's Class HERE

Am Vol Report 6-20-2017

Posted By Mark Sebastian Tue, 06/20/2017 - 9:15am

AM Vol Report

Posted By Mark Sebastian Mon, 06/19/2017 - 9:04am

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Idea of the Week: COST

Posted By Andrew Giovinazzi Fri, 06/16/2017 - 11:03am

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Morning Vol Report: All Retail is AMZN

Posted By Andrew Giovinazzi Fri, 06/16/2017 - 9:04am

 

 

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Volatility is in the bonds!

Posted By Andrew Giovinazzi Thu, 06/15/2017 - 4:36pm

Well… not really.  60 day IV is at a 1 year low for TLT as shown on the Livevol chart below.  And yet I can’t help but think the recent rally in bond prices is some reflection of market worry.  Let’s call it Shadow Volatility.  With the Fed raising and getting ready to dump their rather large block of securities you would think TLT and longer duration bonds would be softer but this is not the case.  Something else is afoot.

Bond short covering, maybe?  New DJT investigation or the big tech wreck, maybe and maybe?   Maybe it is just the fact that rates are going to stay stable and climb slightly, at least according to the Fed. The bid for US Gov bonds looks more like a flight to safety in a world with a dearth of bargains and more uncertainty with the Trump Agenda coming to fruition.

LivevolX for Lightspeed

The trade

I like long strangles in TLT in the Jul cycle but with a very short hold time if we don’t see a move soon.  TLT is in a strange place on low IV and normally that makes me a buyer of juice. 

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