Something happened on the way to the Non-Farm Payroll number. The market stopped giving a darn in a big way. The rally on neg interest rates in Japan (really!) and better than expected manufacturing numbers gave investors the reason to buy stocks again. All the big indexes were up 2% at least as the short took it once again in the shorts. What was not up was VIX. I wrote last night the possibility of a move but not expect it until after the number. As they say, things happen and VIX rolled to a closing low for a volatile 2016.
The next NFP report comes out this week and it feels like no matter what the news is that stocks will sell off. In the old QE world bad news was good news as stocks rallied on either a good number or more QE. Now a bad number is bad and a good number is higher rates. That essentially is where the market is. High G7 debt makes traders jumpy and the big numbers make them jumpier. Today VIX and the vol futures looked sold into the morning and then beat a hasty jump into the end of the day. A vol product like VXX moved over $1 close to close.
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Despite the 'low' VIX there has not been a lot of demand for VIX options. If one looks at VVIX, the VIX of VIX options it is now at its lowest level since early August (before everything below up) of 2015. Yet, it is probably going to go lower. The VIX, is in a contango, but has not been in it for that long and its still not that steep. History suggests that VIX curvature will steepen before it get bid up again. Once it gets steep enough, THAT is when I expect to see VVIX finally start to move.
We have noticed that trader do not seem to love buying bond volatility. Considering how much TLT moved today, and has moved over the last few weeks (I mean look at those gaps and candles). How is it possible that that IV can be trading in line with 10 and 20 day HV. The options appear to be too inexpensive.