Well… not really. 60 day IV is at a 1 year low for TLT as shown on the Livevol chart below. And yet I can’t help but think the recent rally in bond prices is some reflection of market worry. Let’s call it Shadow Volatility. With the Fed raising and getting ready to dump their rather large block of securities you would think TLT and longer duration bonds would be softer but this is not the case. Something else is afoot.
QQQ IV is at 3 month highs and near highs for the year. So naturally the many traders are thinking we should sell premium? But does that make sense? Take a look at 10 and 20 day HV compared to 30 day IV in QQQ: