Today in our chat service Option Pit Live we were looking at trades and took notice of something, the IV of American Airlines was at a two year low. I then pulled up a chart of IYT which is the ETF for the Transpo's that actually do have options and take a look at the IV action in the transportations. Yet, VIX is down big in that time, but the transportation IV is in from 32% to likely to break 20 tomorrow.
The VIX settled right near 17 today. Yet that is not the big vol news. The really intersting news is what happened in the vol or vol market. VIX is at levels we saw in December, the VVIX is at levels not really seen, since before August, back below 80. Take a look at its price action of VIX cash index against the decline in VVIX.
Something happened on the way to the Non-Farm Payroll number. The market stopped giving a darn in a big way. The rally on neg interest rates in Japan (really!) and better than expected manufacturing numbers gave investors the reason to buy stocks again. All the big indexes were up 2% at least as the short took it once again in the shorts. What was not up was VIX. I wrote last night the possibility of a move but not expect it until after the number. As they say, things happen and VIX rolled to a closing low for a volatile 2016.
The next NFP report comes out this week and it feels like no matter what the news is that stocks will sell off. In the old QE world bad news was good news as stocks rallied on either a good number or more QE. Now a bad number is bad and a good number is higher rates. That essentially is where the market is. High G7 debt makes traders jumpy and the big numbers make them jumpier. Today VIX and the vol futures looked sold into the morning and then beat a hasty jump into the end of the day. A vol product like VXX moved over $1 close to close.