Now that the curve is essentially flat, the likelyhood of the market going up is now greater than the market going down. That said its not the complete 'safe zone' for stocks. So today's answer is
If its not THE time to jump in, it is the safest its been to jump in in weeks. I would consider some sort of premium sale of puts around this level, as the market is now pricing no test of a second bottom, although its been wrong before.
Interestingly,despite the VIX futures being pretty much flat on the day, and VXV being down, the CURVE actually STEEPENED today. Notice we are still extremely backward:
For a few weeks we have been saying that the pain will continue. However, today we go super close to saying, maybe it is finally time to at a minimum no longer lean long vol (if not dipping the toe in the water on short vol). However, the VIX and VIX futures quickly earased that. At the top of the market today the VIX was down to 21.5 with the future in the 23's and about flat with October futures. When that happened, the idea of adding to long volatiltiy went out the window.
The VVIX is finally off of its highs from the last few weeks. Even so, VVIX at its current level would qualify as a major VIX options vol spike over the last two years. The fact that VVIX has stayed this high for this long makes me believe our market story may not be quite over.