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Rates stay low so why are the Home builders so volatile?

The stock market got a gift from the FOMC minutes release today by leaving the status quo largely unchanged.  I guess there is enough jazz in the mix with oil prices, Russian solvency and high yield debt tfor the Fed to chew on for a while.  There has been plenty of volatility to go around with VIX trading just over 23 today on a  run down to the 19s.

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Oil SPX Coorelation Breaks... The Wrong Way

I have been saying for a few days that the coorelation between Oil and SPX is kind of dumb and non sensical.  Close observation of the coorelation shows that often SPX sells off with Oil, but once Oil stops selling off SPX would rally.

Now take a look at what happened today.  The SPX rallied with Oil mid-morning with a high in the SPX over 18 handles.  Then, as WTI and USO sat,  the SPX dove on Russia fears and maybe the Fed.

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VVIX down but VIX has it hair on fire

The current confluence of issues is the Ruble (Poor Vlad!), emerging markets and oil.  News in the USA after the Senate passed the spending bill is actually quite good.  Good numbers and low oil prices should set a nice stage for 2015 except you would not know it from the drop today.

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Stocks drop on good news so beware the realized vol

Stock got pasted again today despite the good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales.  Oil prices are going even lower and that should be good for the consumer too.  The retail index is holding up pretty well despite the 1.5% selloff into the close.  What has gotten the VIX futures in such a funk?

By the end of the day VIX cash has shot way up as players are avoiding the risk on the weekend.  Maybe there is not a budget bill and folks are nervous.  Something is definitely afoot.  Maybe the oil drop is too much of a good thing?

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When Volatility Does Not Tell The Story

Today, the SPX settled down .49 points. This will show up as essentially as a 0 in realized volatility terms as measured by GARCH which is what most brokerage firms use to measure HV.  But does that tell the whole story?

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LivevolX (r) www.livevol.com

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