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Rough Day to Be a Loved Equtiy

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While today's sell off was actually a bit of a 'meh'  there was one group of stocks that really got slapped around today:  Loved Stocks.  I loved stock is a stock that consistently is the most talked about on not only the networks but on Twitter.  Take a look at the performance of some of the most loved stocks:

AAPL: -3%

AMZN: -3%

BABA: -5%

FB: -3%

GRPO: -5%

LNKD: -4%

TSLA: -6%

TWTR: -6%

YHOO: -3%

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VIX Might Finally Break

As I look at VIX, I believe it might finally be ready to break.  There are a few historical things that point toward a drop:

1.  We are entering the holidays, always a time when things tend to drop

2.  There are very few economic data points coming out till next friday.

3.  And finally there is this:

Chart - ^SPX_window_screenshot_0.png

LivevolX (r) www.livevol.com

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SPX Vol Continues to Be Firm

The S&P 500 has blown up higher and is now closer to 2100 than 2000.  Yet the VIX continues to be firm holding above 13.5, even in a somewhat low realized vol enviornment.  It is pretty clear in the chart below:

Chart - ^SPX_window_screenshot.png

LivevolX (r) www.livevol.com

The question is why?  There are two arguements:

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The Fed is not going to Raise Rates in 2015

I know there continues to be some speculation about whether the Fed will raise rates in the 1st half of 2015,  right now the answer is a resounding NO.  In fact I think the Fed Funds rate stays at 0 for all of 2015.  Here is why they have TONS of cover.  Lets look at why:

1.  Employment.  The unemployment rate.  While the heavily reported U-3 rate is back to normal, the more important U-6 rate is still at levels from October of 2008, no where near normal levels.  Check out the spread between U-3 and U-6.

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