Blog

Treasury volatility is still popping

 

Since today is another day stocks are making a little run on the shortened session prior to Christmas.  I think the move to 2100 on the SPX is pre-ordained by the law of even numbers.  Stocks love going to a number.  Test a new high, break some support, it is all just round number.

Blog Image: 

My favorite blog of 2014- one of mine of course

As we come to the end of the year I thought I would put out my favorite blog of 2014.  It was a lesson on the weekend effect and how traders roll dates forward to pre-load time decay through the holiday.  As we are coming into the double barrel of Christmas and New Year I thought this would be helpful.  The short answer is selling options on Christmas Eve will not yield the dough one might think.

Realized vol is still high enough that selling short term options could get you in a heap of worry if the Santa Clause rally holds up.

Sometimes options are too cheap to sell.

Blog Image: 

Like the Loved FB

One thing I always like to keep an eye on is how 'high fliers' perform in sell offs. In these most recent sell offs 'loved' names like TSLA, AMZN, GPRO, and AAPL have gotten a bit of a smoosh.  One 'loved name' that did exceptionally well in this sell off is FB. While AAPL dipped to 108, and GPRO back to 55,  FB stayed somewhat healthy never breaking 74.

Chart - FB_window_screenshot.png

Blog Image: 

Rates stay low so why are the Home builders so volatile?

The stock market got a gift from the FOMC minutes release today by leaving the status quo largely unchanged.  I guess there is enough jazz in the mix with oil prices, Russian solvency and high yield debt tfor the Fed to chew on for a while.  There has been plenty of volatility to go around with VIX trading just over 23 today on a  run down to the 19s.

Blog Image: 

Oil SPX Coorelation Breaks... The Wrong Way

I have been saying for a few days that the coorelation between Oil and SPX is kind of dumb and non sensical.  Close observation of the coorelation shows that often SPX sells off with Oil, but once Oil stops selling off SPX would rally.

Now take a look at what happened today.  The SPX rallied with Oil mid-morning with a high in the SPX over 18 handles.  Then, as WTI and USO sat,  the SPX dove on Russia fears and maybe the Fed.

usospy.PNG

Blog Image: 

VVIX down but VIX has it hair on fire

The current confluence of issues is the Ruble (Poor Vlad!), emerging markets and oil.  News in the USA after the Senate passed the spending bill is actually quite good.  Good numbers and low oil prices should set a nice stage for 2015 except you would not know it from the drop today.

Blog Image: 

Stocks drop on good news so beware the realized vol

Stock got pasted again today despite the good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales.  Oil prices are going even lower and that should be good for the consumer too.  The retail index is holding up pretty well despite the 1.5% selloff into the close.  What has gotten the VIX futures in such a funk?

By the end of the day VIX cash has shot way up as players are avoiding the risk on the weekend.  Maybe there is not a budget bill and folks are nervous.  Something is definitely afoot.  Maybe the oil drop is too much of a good thing?

Blog Image: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - blogs