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Near Term HV at a Bottom

As we all know,  vol can go anywhere, but is unlikely to stay there.  While HV can touch into the low single digits for short periods of time, it doesn't stay there long.  Take a look at a 2 year chart of 10 day HV and 30 day IV

Chart - ^SPX - S&P 500 Index RTH_window_screenshot_0.png

LivevolX (r) www.livevol.com

Notice that while IV is not at its lows, HV is in fact touching the lowest levels in two years. This would point toward one of two things

1.  HV has to rally

2.  IV has to implode

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Is there a second take in TTWO?

Stocks are going to make a closing high today or near it as I write this post and I can’t help but think we would be way higher if Vladimir Putin could make up his mind what he wants to do in the Ukraine.  We know what he wants to do, take a bunch of territory, but the Europeans are still threatening sanctions.  That is keeping the VIX into another elevated close and vol. futures bid.

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YHOO getting antsy for the BABA IPO

After the record run to all-time highs stocks are stuck today while the violence in the Ukraine continues.  We have highlighted the 5% realized vol in the SPX and will not rehash that but stocks are setting up to go somewhere.  A name that has been setting up to go somewhere is YHOO.

The stake in BABA has really driven the value in YHOO’s shares recently and the name has been in a range from $33 to $38.  It is now at a 3  month high as BABA just released a decent earnings report as it sets to IPO.

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Our Founder on Bloomberg TV Talking AAPL and RL

Our Founder Mark Sebastian was on Bloomberg TV from the CBOE talking SPX, VIX, AAPL and RL
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Will the low realized volatility stay with us forever?

I like working at Option Pit with Mark Sebastian and I like our clients.  Well one it is fun, most of time, and we have great clients.   From time to time we get some solid observations from them.  That is another thing I like.  Having a different perspective from traders you have helped educate usually means some interesting stuff know the foundation is solid.  So I am giving one of our clients some props here for this one.  He  knows who he is.

Note that when realized volatility dips below 5% on a short term basis it usually does not stay there for too long.  I have 10 day RV down around 5.41%.  Right now the first 3 Weekly terms in the SPX are all below 9%.

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14.50? Really???

I understand there is a major difference between straddle price and actual movement, because most pricing models assume dynamic hedging.   The SPX is now 2000.00,  does anyone see the disconnect in the weekly straddle price?  Take a look at this trade ticket:

^SPX Complex Order Ticket_window_screenshot_0.png

Livevol X (r) www.livevol.com

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Has the Weekend Effect Moved?

The blog post that really broke out our blog was this one involving Time Decay and the Weekend (we will always have a special place in our hearts for Bill Luby pushing it out).   To sum up the post, we explained how market makers 'moved the clock' on their machines to bring implied volatiltiy down with out screwing around with their actually vols they were running.  The basic point is that market makers take weekend decay out over a few days at the end of the week which causes VIX to drop on Thursday's and Friday's and to rally on Monday's.

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Volatility on a knife edge

Close but not quite there yet.  SPY traded 199.75 today as the 200 level hangs like the Sword of Damocles over the market.  Everything is feeling good and long equity positions are kicking butt.  In short living the good life like Damocles envisioned.  However, the sword is poised to drop if Janet Yellen cuts the horse hair on rates and down the market drops.  There is some weird tension on that tenuous horse hair of volatility.

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VIX Futures Ahead of the Curve

Yesterday I made a comment on how I thought VIX futures were maybe oversold.  I was right, but not in the way I thought.  Today, despite the VIX threatening 11.5% and the SPX hitting an all time high, the VIX futures curve barely moved:

vix_20.JPG

www.vixcentral.com

The reason they didn't move was because the VIX futures were oversold.  They were anticipating today's move and were pricing in the cash VIX adjusting to the futures, not the other way around like I thought.  Notice how on top of eachother the curve yesterday and the curve today are, then notice the difference in VIX.

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VIX term structure is getting cheap

Another day another rally in the good old USA as America Inc. keeps delivering the goods.  More solid earnings and home start data got us off to another good start today.  Market players are waiting on Yellen to report some lower to stabile rate news, which could  send stocks even higher.  I see that 200 number on the SPY and can’t help but think that is the next round number to cross the line.


charts from : http://www.vixcentral.com/

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