Blog

VIX Is Really Expensive

Today, while the S&P was mostly unchanged, the VIX was up more than .80.  When taking into account for weekend effect a little better than unchanged.  Yet in many respects it should have been absolutely destroyed by the market.  Why?  Well take a look at where movement has been, in and out of meetings, in and out of economic announcements, and wars.  Yet for some reason this Fed meeting is being treated as if there is some fundamental change occuring.  Take a look at the HV/IV spread:

Blog Image: 

And One More Thing VXAPL About to get Crushed

The news is out  Apple is going to have the I-Phone 6 AND the I-Phone 6 PLUS!!! Plus  APPLE PAY and the I-Watch.  Based on what the stock did,  the market acted to the AAPL conference much like McKayla Maroney would to a Silver Medal.  With that the VXAPL got smoked.  Even more so, the VIX options expiring this week and next week took it in the chin.  That being said, it appears the market is still holding out hope for some more movement here is a chart of VXAPL:

Blog Image: 

VIX Realized Vol about as Low As It Gets

I spent a little time looking at VIX vol today.  I have to say, it is about as low as it gets...but could go even lower.  Take a look at how much HV has plumpted in VIX over the last few weeks.  But, taking a look at 30 DAY HV,  it is possible things could get worse.

Chart - ^VIX - CBOE Volatility Index_window_screenshot_4.png

LivevolX (r) www.livevol.com

Blog Image: 

When GS Vol Breaks 15%, Its a Buy

We watch IV's of the SPX and many of its securities like a hawk.  Our goal is to try to find patterns that emerge in the volatiltiy markets that can potentially make money.  One that we have noticed internally and began to trade off of, in the strategy letter, is Goldman Sachs.  Traders have a bad habbit of overselling the premiums coming out of events and after big moves.  This is almost always a mistake.  Take a look at the pattern of GS when the IV drops below 15%.

Blog Image: 

Beware despots sending in aid

 Sign up for our free VIX class here for Sept. 24th, 2014-  

It is funny I thought the Russians sending in aid a couple of weeks ago was a bit of a smoke screen.  Somehow the Ukrainian rebels got a new leg up.  The situation for them has gotten better since the white “humanitarian aid” trucks went in.  Fast forward to today.

Blog Image: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - blogs