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VIX Got ALOT Ahead of Itself

Yesterday we discussed how the VIX might have gotten ahead of itself before the Greek vote.  Considering the IMF statements, ECB, and all of the other Parlitment Reps talking in Greece, there is still SOME doubt that a deal gets done.  Even though the deal will probably be signed,  With SOME doubt the VIX should not have a 12 handle, especially considering China is still floating around.  The market seemed to figure that out today after some premium sellers got ahead of themselves.

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Did the $VIX Get a Little Ahead of Itself?

Greece has a deal,  good or bad, there is some sort of deal.  However it is not a done deal.  The Greek Parliment still needs to approve it, and then alot of other details need to still be worked out.  This might be part of the reason that S&P 500 rallied less than 50 points on the Greek deal over 2 days.  Yet,  the VIX has been utterly hammered. For a tiny rally,  volatility has been completely smashed.  Take a look at the magnitude of the move S&P 500 IV made relative to the actual SPX.

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VIX Curve Completely Screwed Up

Today was certainly a rough day for the S&P 500.  Like Clockwork it tested the lows from the day before, but managed to hold.  With that the VIX exploded higher settling near 19.65.  In fact the whole cruve is in backwardation through the August contract.  But that doesn't mean there isnt trading opportunity.  Take a look at the front of the VIX futures curve.

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www.vixcentral.com

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Does the VIX Think Its Priced Greece In?

Looking at the action today the VIX and VIX futures had a decent range, as did the SPX.  However,  while the SPX threatened its recent lows today,  at no point in time did the VIX get close to the highs we saw in the middle of last week.  See the SPX vs the VIX below, notice how the highs from today get no where close to what we saw last week, this desptie possibly more uncertainty.

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