Sometimes clients ask me what trading in the mid-to-90’s was like and I tell them, “fun”! There was Long Term Capital and the Russian Debt crisis but really those were small blips in the rally. The big internet boom was booming and aside from those sharp but short drop offs stocks flew and volatility went up with it. There were many days when stocks just took off for $50 rallies and then did it again the next day.
Andrew Giovinazzi's blog
There was a time not too long ago where any hint of Euro disunity caused big ripples in the markets. We had the Greek elections and debt crisis and MF Global blew out on what turned out to be a good bet long PIGS debt. Spain is having a mini-crisis around the Catalan state leaving and US markets mostly shrugged.
For the first time since Weeklys were listed, at least that I can remember, IV is in the 6 handle or lower for all SPX Weekly options out a month. Well the Oct27 is 7.12 but still very low. At the money IV in the Oct02 cycle is 4.99%. Can it get lower?
As we run to all-time highs for SPX and RUT plain kicking the door down, VIX notched in a 9 handle close. All is normal, as the BIG VOL INDEX runs the way it is supposed to. Now the issue really is why the VIX Oct future remains above 12 with less than 3 weeks to go. The short answer is the future traders are holding out. Waiting for the next DJT Tweet bomb or a NK dirt clod fight has left premium sellers a little shell shocked. They won't give it up.
Today was the first day in a while that oil backed off in price. I am not sure what the short term demand optics are but the glut seems to be over for a while. Harvey or a variety of hurricanes could be the culprit. Oil is up a bit so maybe someone needs to start drilling again.
Every weekend we are treated to a variety of Tweets designed to arouse some and infuriate others. The fearless leader of NK and the NFL came under fire within 24 hours of each other. So from a standard deviation perspective, you can't get much farther apart than those Tweets. Maybe we call it 3 Sigma Tweeting in that they were so different the NFL issue almost blanked the NK issue over the weekend. I don't think that is what upset the QQQ today.
I was expecting maybe more fireworks out of the FOMC but got very little. The Fed will unwind their balance sheet by the time I am 82. That reminds me of the old cathedrals that took generations to build where the father passed on the skills to the son. Now we just pass our debt to the next generation. Either way VIX closed sub 10 for the first time that I can remember on a FOMC day. The rate picture is clear for near forever in market terms.
EFX is probably guilty of many sins at this point:
Failure to heed a breach warning from CSCO
Doing little or nothing after a breach was discovered
Having executives sell stock while all this was known INSIDE the company at the very top