Andrew Giovinazzi's blog

The market greets WMT

Not much to write about today.  The biggest news is that the NFL might review its “take a knee” policy and that as you know would overshadow any economic news.  I did find headlines about the Chinese government taking an “active” role in the big Chinese internet companies and I am thinking long term that cannot be good.  BABA and BIDU were both done a bit after torrid runs.  My story for today is WMT because it broke the 3 day rule I just wrote about and what the heck I own it too.

Blog Image: 

The 3 day rule

The 3 day rule

No, I did not invent the 3 day rule, but I like it.  In the old days a stock that went up 3 days in a row was susceptible to a pullback.  The 90’s put the rule on hold and QE messed with it as well.  Basically it is the old tape readers logic that 3 days in one direction is not sustainable.  With equity prices it is not a bad swing run timing thing, but it works very well for volatility, QE be damned.

Blog Image: 

NVDA to the moon and beyond

Not very long ago NVDA was a $30 stock.  Now that the world has caught on to the many uses of GPU’s NVDA is a $190 stock.  Citron hated it at $100 and that was $90 ago.  With earnings coming up the MOMO crowd will not be able to let NVDA go so I think there is reasonable support for the name.  The question is if I can make some upside cheap enough.

Blog Image: 

Shut the door, VIX is up two days in a row

It happened! The streak of sub-10 closes is going to end for VIX today and I am not sure why.  Yeah we had some weekend effect and the morning rally in tech went kaput, but actual SPX move was pretty light.  I think this is the one time in IV where VIX rallied because traders were looking at the upside instead of the downside.  Sub-10 VIX is still pushing on a rope with vol expectation to go lower.

Blog Image: 

TWTR IV is not worth bird feed, WELL MAYBE

The Tweeting President, TWEET this and TWEET that.  There are few products used and mentioned more than TWTR on a daily basis and have a stock price that does so little.  I can’t think of any stocks really. Trading options comes in two schools in my opinion:

You stock is a vehicle to trade the options

The options are a vehicle to trade the stock

Tags: 
Blog Image: 

VIX does it again!

 So you say, "what does VIX do again"?  It stayed below 9 for the 6th day in a row.  Mark did a hit on Mad Money describing this.  Realized vol is in the toilet so VIX should be low.  If VIX was rising solidly on  a rising SPX, usually that is a good time close the short vol positions.  We did have a slight up day in VIX today, .12, but I don’t think that is enough to reverse the trend.  ATM IV in the SPX is 6.68% so it is hard for VIX to get much lower.

Blog Image: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Andrew Giovinazzi's blog