Andrew Giovinazzi's blog

Trading Gold

Tech is still where it’s at with most of the big names reporting earnings beats.  Even lowly TWTR managed to squeak out a big move up now that profitability looks much more likely.  Long term IV is still cheap in there.  Evaluating volatility and position structure is a learned skill and that is what we teach in our Gold Course.

The Trade

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Will Super Mario save the day?

For a few moments today VIX went backward and traders decided to worry about a tax plan, ECB rate hikes, FANG earnings and whatever else ails a screaming stock market all at once.  I don’t see many backward to VIX cash markets at 13 VIX but we had one today.  Usually VIX traders have a reason to let VIX cash fly.

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Will GE do it or not?

Not so quietly GE has fallen from the low 30’s into the low 20’s with SPX and INDU making all-time highs.  Massive asset sales could be on the block and the equally massive 4.4% TTM dividend could be on the block too.  I think most of the weakness in GE is centered on those issues.  Option Pit is giving a free credit spread webinar tonight so this is an inkling of that.  And no GE will not be the topic.

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VIX future premium is too skinny

      

Any down day in a week for the SPX that does not see many is significant for VIX.  Not that VIX moves a ton yet but for what it sets up going forward.  For VIX traders VIX should go up when SPX drops but this is really not a big move on a percentage basis for SPX.  After all, the move was less than .50% for SPX but a full 1 point pop in VIX.  Even in low vol the VIX cash moved seem a bit rosey.

 

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IBM is back so party like it's 1992-1994

 With all the ’87 Crash reminiscing I figured it was time to reach into my nostalgia bucket and come up with IBM.  The early 90s were mostly about the death of IBM and rise of MSFT in tech.  I remember traders selling calls upon calls in IBM as it went into the dustbin for several years as the mainframe went the way of the Dodo.  Seems over the last several years IBM has had the same issue as in the past with falling revenue while still being somewhat profitable.  Wall Street hates that.

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VIX futures the quicker picker upper

For a moment there I thought hell froze over as a bi-partisan plan for the AHCA might keep it running for two more years.  Keep buying the insurance companies I guess.  Today was such a snooze that I have to go observational.  NFLX was not enough to excite although 70% stock price gains this year are exciting enough.  Let’s talk VIX because it did something slightly not normal but normal today.

charts from VIXcentral.com

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AMZN gives WBA the boot

Ever since this summer when AMZN kicked the tar out of COST and WMT for buying toney retail space owner WFM, I have been waiting for the next victim.  Meal maker BLUE got thrashed but that was kind of a David and Goliath battle anyway.  WBA is no market pansy but rather a real heavyweight globally in prescription drugs.  It did not matter much as the leader premium got kicked out of WBA in a hurry.

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