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VIX Futures Say One Off

The VIX was up a nice ammount today.  But I am pretty sure that there is little chance we are going to have a serious issue.  Why?  Becuase of the VIX-VX spread.  The VIX was up 2 points,  the VIX future in June, was up only .50.  It didnt even SNEEZE when the SPX sold off down near 30 points today. Topping off at up about .65 on the day.

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Is the OPK squeeze healthy?

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The FOMC released their statement today and the June raise is looking unlikely.  2016 will probably be the year when interest rates get back to normal but for now all stocks could do was muster a .10% move in the big indexes either way.  We are starting to tilt toward good news is good news again but the sub normal rates and stocks are showing the indecision today with VIX trading 2015 lows.

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$UVXY and $VXX The Problem $VXUP Doesn't Solve

With the launch of VXUP and VXDN shares by accushares, the issuers of UVXY slipped in that the ETN is reverse splitting 5 for 1....again.  2 years ago, split adjusted UVXY was about 200 dollars,  thus it has lost about 96% of its value.  Kind of a rough go.

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TLT Vol is Still Too Cheap

This blog has made note multiple time that the bond market has started to move.  What is important to understand is that unlike markets like gold, or even currency.  If the bond market moves out of its range so will the stock market.  However, there is a more important point to made with bonds right now:  its too cheap to own gamma.  Take a look at 10 and 20 day realized volatility relative to implied.

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VXX looks ripe again

Today retraced most of the goldilocks rally in stocks on Friday.  2 days pass and without any real good news (TPP failed in the Senate) stocks had a hard time mustering anything.  Early morning bond selling started things off on the wrong foot too.  The reality is the fear is just not there as the big elephant is rates and the ECB is content to plod along with bond buying until the Greece issue passes.  We only catches glimpse of what will happen when rates start to reset.  For now that is just not happening.

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