Are the VIX futures pricing another election?

See our Saturday Butterfly Class here

As the SPX tilts to all-time highs again, VIX is meandering down to the 11 handle after getting oversold last week into the holiday.  What was strange was the action in the VIX future term structure.  VIX futures lifted on a day when there was scant market activity and close to close volatility was even lower than the posted 10 day 4.28%. Every future in the VIX term structure was higher.

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VIX Action All Kinds of Funk

The VIX is in the news again this time because it has stopped negatively coorelating iwth the S&P 500.  While this is true,  especially in the futures, I would argue that has more to do with the complete collapse of movement in the SPX.  For a week the SPX drops a little, in tiny increments, and VIX falls.  Now we have the VIX rallying and futures rallying even as the SPX is up.  I would argue a couple of things:

1.  We are off a long weekend coming from a period of time where the SPX barely moved.

2.  SPX is finally starting to wake up,  even if its a rally

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Mar VIX on top of VIX with SPX on the Top


Rumors or facts are circulating outside of DC for once.  It looks like a midsize hedge fund had to close a short contract position and helped the VIX to a nasty settlement on Wednesday by helping up the IV in SPX.  The Total Tuesday Vol Crush gave way to the VIX pop on Wednesday and early Thursday.  What it did set up was a strange dynamic in the VIX futures.

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